According to @stocktalkweekly, the White House press secretary identified as Leavitt said October CPI and jobs data will likely never be released, posted on Nov 12, 2025; source: @stocktalkweekly. Traders should wait for confirmation or refutation on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics release schedule for CPI and the Employment Situation before repositioning; source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. BTC and ETH historically experience elevated intraday swings around CPI and NFP prints, with short-dated implied volatility rising into these events; source: Deribit Insights, Kaiko Research. If key macro releases are withheld, rate-expectation proxies (CME FedWatch) and U.S. Treasury yields can dominate risk pricing and spill over to crypto beta; source: CME FedWatch, U.S. Department of the Treasury. Actionables: monitor the BLS press room, track DXY and 2Y/10Y yields, and consider hedging with short-dated BTC and ETH options to manage event risk; source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Deribit.

According to @StockMKTNewz, the post on X stated that "We may never get October's CPI data." source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Nov 12, 2025. The Consumer Price Index is the official U.S. inflation report published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; if the October release is unavailable, a primary input used by traders to calibrate Federal Reserve rate expectations via CME FedWatch would be missing. sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; CME Group. For crypto markets, institutional access to BTC and ETH via CME Bitcoin and Ether futures makes macro data windows operationally important for positioning and hedging across risk assets. source: CME Group. Until there is official guidance, traders can monitor proxy gauges such as the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting, Treasury 10-year breakeven inflation, and ISM Prices Paid to infer inflation trends. sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; U.S. Department of the Treasury; Institute for Supply Management. Market participants should monitor the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for status updates or advisories regarding the October CPI report. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

According to the source, BTC traders are focused on this week’s U.S. CPI because the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the index at 8:30 a.m. ET on its official schedule and CPI prints are among the most market-moving macro data, source: BLS CPI calendar https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm. CPI surprises versus expectations can rapidly shift market-implied probabilities for the next FOMC meeting, as tracked in real time by the CME FedWatch Tool, which often triggers cross-asset repositioning that spills into crypto, source: CME FedWatch Tool https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html. Within CPI, core inflation and shelter carry outsized influence because shelter has the largest weight in the basket, making sticky shelter a key risk to rate-cut timelines that risk assets monitor, source: BLS CPI relative importance tables https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/home.htm. Given the documented rise in co-movement between crypto and U.S. equities, especially during macro shocks, BTC can mirror stock reactions to inflation surprises, so traders watch S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures into the print, source: IMF research blog Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks https://blogs.imf.org/en/2022/01/11/crypto-prices-move-more-in-sync-with-stocks/. Options markets also price event risk; BTC implied volatility typically adjusts into and immediately after CPI, and many use listed crypto options for hedging directional exposure around the release, source: Deribit Insights overview and DVOL resources https://insights.deribit.com and Deribit options marketplace https://www.deribit.com. Futures traders monitor basis and liquidity on CME Bitcoin futures to gauge institutional positioning and potential gap risk around the headline, source: CME Bitcoin futures product page https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.html.

According to @cryptorover, the odds of a December Federal Reserve rate cut are dropping, highlighting a macro shift traders monitor for potential volatility in crypto markets including BTC and ETH, source: Crypto Rover on X. Traders commonly reference the CME FedWatch Tool to quantify policy path probabilities and align positioning in crypto with changing rate expectations, source: CME FedWatch Tool.

According to @cryptorover, Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates three more times—one in December and two in 2026—bringing the policy rate down to roughly 3.00–3.25%. Source: @cryptorover on X, Nov 9, 2025. If this path materializes, lower policy rates tend to reduce Treasury yields and ease financial conditions, historically supportive for risk assets including BTC and ETH. Source: Federal Reserve Board Monetary Policy Report; U.S. Department of the Treasury yield data; CoinGecko historical BTC and ETH data for 2019–2020 easing cycle. Traders can monitor CME FedWatch probabilities, the U.S. 10-year yield, and the U.S. Dollar Index for confirmation of easier conditions that often boost crypto liquidity and volatility. Source: CME FedWatch Tool; U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE U.S. Dollar Index. Key risk: a re-acceleration in inflation or labor strength could quickly reprice cut expectations and weigh on crypto. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI and employment reports; Federal Reserve policy statements on data dependence.

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing a 97.8% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at this Wednesday's FOMC decision; source: CME Group FedWatch Tool. According to the Federal Reserve's published meeting schedule, the policy statement and press conference are set for Wednesday, a timing that typically concentrates event risk for rate-sensitive assets; source: Federal Reserve Board. According to the Federal Reserve's policy implementation framework, a 25 bps cut reduces the target federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points, filtering through to short-term funding costs that traders monitor for positioning across risk assets; source: Federal Reserve Board. According to CME Group product documentation, BTC and ETH futures and options offer liquidity to hedge and express views around macro policy outcomes, making FOMC days focal for crypto derivatives activity; source: CME Group. According to ICE's U.S. Dollar Index methodology, DXY is a key USD benchmark that traders reference when valuing BTC/USD and ETH/USD during rate decisions, linking policy moves to crypto-dollar pair pricing; source: ICE

According to the source, Bitcoin is preparing for its first U.S. inflation read since a government shutdown, putting a near-term focus on CPI as a volatility catalyst, source: the source. The U.S. Consumer Price Index is released at 8:30 a.m. ET and is a widely followed macro indicator that can shift risk sentiment across assets, source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. BTC historically sees elevated intraday volatility and thinner order books around CPI release windows, increasing slippage and execution risk for traders, source: Kaiko Research. Crypto options markets have tended to price an implied volatility rise into CPI and an IV crush afterward, shaping short-dated gamma and skew positioning, source: Deribit Insights. Rate expectations that update after CPI often move the U.S. dollar and front-end Treasury yields, which have shown inverse correlation with BTC during tightening phases, source: CME FedWatch Tool; Federal Reserve. Key watch items at the release include DXY, U.S. 2-year yields, BTC funding rates, and spot-futures basis due to their sensitivity to rate expectations and liquidity conditions, source: ICE Data Indices; U.S. Department of the Treasury; Kaiko; Deribit.

According to the source, a U.S. federal shutdown would force the Bureau of Labor Statistics to postpone the Employment Situation (nonfarm payrolls) release because BLS suspends data collection and publication during a lapse in appropriations, which is outlined in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics contingency plan. According to the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement, labor market conditions are a key input to data‑dependent policy, and traders recalibrate rate‑cut odds after the jobs report using fed funds futures, as described by CME Group’s FedWatch methodology. According to the Cboe Options Institute, uncertainty around the timing of major macro releases tends to lift implied volatility, and crypto has become sensitive to U.S. macro conditions, according to IMF research showing stronger co-movement with broader risk assets.

According to @BullTheoryio, the main market risk from a potential U.S. government shutdown is uncertainty, while prior shutdowns were followed by relatively quick recoveries in risk assets (source: @BullTheoryio X post, Sep 28, 2025). Verified history shows the S&P 500 rose roughly 4–5% in the month after the Oct 1–16, 2013 shutdown ended, reaching new highs (source: S&P 500 historical prices, S&P Dow Jones Indices). During the Dec 22, 2018–Jan 25, 2019 shutdown, the S&P 500 advanced about 5% in the month following the reopening, after a larger rebound off the late-December 2018 trough (source: S&P 500 historical prices, S&P Dow Jones Indices). For crypto, BTC did not experience a shutdown-driven crash in that window; in January 2019 it traded mostly in the 3,300–3,700 dollar range while U.S. equities recovered (source: CoinGecko BTC historical data; S&P 500 historical prices). @BullTheoryio cites a latest PCE inflation reading of 2.7 percent year over year as in line with expectations, a datapoint investors typically track via the BEA release and futures-implied policy probabilities (source: @BullTheoryio X post; Bureau of Economic Analysis PCE Price Index; CME FedWatch Tool).

According to the source, a social media post attributed a statement to Michael Novogratz that a dovish Federal Reserve chair could drive Bitcoin (BTC) materially higher; the specific 200,000 dollar target in that post cannot be independently verified here. source: public X post dated 2025-09-27 In trading terms, a dovish shift typically means lower policy rates or slower balance sheet runoff, easing financial conditions that historically support risk assets including crypto. source: Federal Reserve FOMC statements and H.4.1 factors affecting reserve balances Traders can gauge policy path via market implied odds to anticipate crypto beta, using CME FedWatch to track expected rate cuts that often move USD and risk momentum. source: CME Group FedWatch Tool Two macro confirmation signals for BTC risk-on are declining U.S. real yields and expanding Fed balance sheet, which traders monitor as liquidity and discount-rate proxies. source: U.S. Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates; Federal Reserve H.4.1 statistical release Execution-wise, watch DXY trend and U.S. 2-year yield breaks for potential BTC directional triggers around policy communication windows. source: ICE U.S. Dollar Index factsheet; U.S. Treasury daily yield data Key risk is a hawkish surprise or sticky inflation that keeps policy restrictive, which has historically pressured risk assets and increased crypto volatility. source: Federal Reserve FOMC minutes and Summary of Economic Projections

According to the source, Bitcoin BTC hovered above 111,000 dollars as traders waited for U.S. inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision. Source: X post dated Sep 25, 2025. The Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is a key inflation gauge referenced by the FOMC in policy assessments, making it a critical catalyst for risk assets including BTC. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve FOMC statement. Into and after the print, market-implied policy probabilities can be tracked via the CME FedWatch Tool to gauge rate hike or cut expectations that often drive BTC volatility. Source: CME Group. For positioning, traders commonly monitor the U.S. Dollar Index and the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield for macro risk cues around the data window. Source: ICE Data Indices for DXY; U.S. Department of the Treasury.

According to @StockMKTNewz, Citadel founder Ken Griffin said he expects the U.S. Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, to deliver one additional rate cut in 2025. Source: https://twitter.com/StockMKTNewz/status/1971254396630790228 For traders, monitor CME FedWatch probabilities, 2-year U.S. Treasury yields, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and BTC/ETH reaction, as easing policy expectations have historically aligned with softer financial conditions and stronger risk-asset performance when real yields and the dollar fall. Sources: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html; https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates; https://www.theice.com/products/194/US-Dollar-Index-Futures; https://coinmetrics.io/state-of-the-network

According to the source, US spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs climbed with solid late-week net inflows as traders priced higher odds of Fed rate cuts into year-end, per CME FedWatch probabilities and Farside Investors ETF flow trackers. However, roughly $1.7 billion in crypto liquidations over the last 24 hours highlights elevated leverage and sets up a Monday cash-session reality check for BTC and ETH, per CoinGlass derivatives data. For confirmation, traders should track US ETF creations/redemptions and net flows after the close, CME front-month basis, and NAV premiums/discounts, per Bloomberg ETF flow data and CME futures term structure.

According to @AltcoinGordon, the post highlights retail traders with small crypto balances waiting for Jerome Powell to cut rates, underscoring how crypto positioning is keyed to Federal Reserve policy shifts, source: @AltcoinGordon. FOMC decisions and statements set the policy rate and shape financial conditions that transmit to asset prices, turning Fed days into high-volatility events for BTC and ETH, source: Federal Reserve. Research shows Bitcoin’s correlation with equities strengthened post‑2020, implying macro policy shocks like rate changes can spill over into crypto returns, source: International Monetary Fund. For trading, monitor CME FedWatch rate probabilities, BTC/ETH options implied volatility and skew on Deribit, and funding rates plus open interest via analytics to manage event risk around FOMC, source: CME Group; source: Deribit; source: Glassnode.

According to the source, Bitcoin traders are evaluating whether a potential Federal Reserve rate cut is already reflected in BTC price and positioning, and a practical way to validate this is to compare CME FedWatch implied probabilities with the latest FOMC statement and Summary of Economic Projections to see if the market implied path aligns with Fed guidance, source: CME Group and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Cross asset confirmation for a priced in cut includes a weaker US Dollar Index and lower US two year Treasury yields into and after the decision window, which are typical market responses to easier policy, source: ICE Data Indices for DXY and US Department of the Treasury and Federal Reserve Economic Data FRED for yields. Derivatives signals consistent with full pricing in include neutral to negative BTC perpetual funding rates, a compressed basis between spot and futures, and moderating open interest that together imply limited incremental long leverage, source: Glassnode, Deribit, and Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Spot demand checks should focus on daily creations or redemptions in US spot Bitcoin ETFs such as iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund to see if net inflows persist beyond rate expectations, source: iShares, Fidelity, and Cboe BZX Exchange issuer disclosures. Options markets that show lower implied volatility and a softening downside skew into the event with muted realized volatility after the announcement indicate expectations were embedded ahead of time, source: Deribit and Laevitas. If BTC underperforms high beta equities following a dovish outcome, that relative move can signal the rate cut was anticipated by crypto relative to stocks, source: S and P Dow Jones Indices and Nasdaq.

According to @rovercrc, Donald Trump said Chair Powell must cut interest rates now and by more than initially planned, calling it “too late.” Source: Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) on X, Sep 15, 2025. An immediate, larger-than-expected Fed cut has historically lifted risk asset valuations by lowering discount rates, which can spill over to crypto beta. Source: NBER, Bernanke and Kuttner (2005) “What Explains the Stock Market’s Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?”. Crypto markets have become increasingly sensitive to U.S. monetary policy and broader risk sentiment, heightening responsiveness to rate surprises. Source: BIS Bulletin No. 57 (2022) “Crypto shocks and retail losses”. Traders should monitor CME FedWatch rate probabilities and front-end Treasury yields for confirmation of easing expectations and potential BTC and ETH volatility shifts. Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool; Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).

According to @rovercrc, President Trump believes the Federal Reserve will deliver a big rate cut this week and frames it as bullish for markets, source: @rovercrc. Rate decisions are determined by the Federal Open Market Committee and become official only when communicated by the FOMC, not the White House, source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. If a cut occurs, looser policy generally eases financial conditions and supports liquidity transmission that can favor risk assets such as BTC and ETH, source: Federal Reserve Board materials on monetary policy transmission. For trade validation, monitor three signals: front-end Treasury yields and fed funds futures pricing for cuts, the US Dollar Index direction, and BTC perpetual funding plus open interest to gauge leverage, source: CME Group FedWatch and futures data, ICE Data Indices for DXY, and exchange derivatives dashboards such as CME and major crypto venues. Until an official FOMC statement confirms a move, treat this as unverified headline risk and adjust position sizing and stops accordingly, source: Federal Reserve FOMC statements archive.

According to @AltcoinGordon, imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts followed by a restart of quantitative easing could spark a powerful crypto bull run and require early positioning to avoid being sidelined, which is an opinion and not an official policy signal. source: @AltcoinGordon on X The latest published Federal Reserve projections outlined a gradual path of potential rate reductions and did not announce QE, so traders should anchor plans to official FOMC statements and projections rather than assumptions. source: Federal Reserve Board, FOMC Summary of Economic Projections June 2024; Federal Reserve Board, balance sheet normalization communications 2022–2024 Historically, during the 2020–2021 QE phase, the Fed’s balance sheet expanded from roughly 4.2 trillion dollars to about 8.7 trillion dollars while BTC rose from around 7,000 dollars in January 2020 to about 69,000 dollars in November 2021, underscoring crypto’s sensitivity to liquidity. source: Federal Reserve Board H.4.1 statistical release; Yahoo Finance BTC-USD historical data To verify any shift toward QE, monitor the weekly H.4.1 release for sustained increases in securities holdings, which would indicate balance sheet expansion rather than ongoing runoff. source: Federal Reserve Board H.4.1 statistical release For rate-path confirmation, use the FOMC statement and Summary of Economic Projections at each meeting and cross-check market-implied probabilities via the CME FedWatch Tool as a real-time gauge. source: Federal Reserve Board FOMC statements and SEP; CME FedWatch Tool If the Fed formally signals easing, historical precedent suggests higher beta in BTC and ETH with stronger volumes and liquidity, whereas policy disappointment during the 2022–2023 tightening coincided with crypto drawdowns. source: Federal Reserve monetary policy communications 2020–2023; Yahoo Finance BTC-USD and ETH-USD historical data Risk management should assume QT may persist without a QE restart, which would keep systemic liquidity tighter than in 2020–2021 and cap upside for higher-beta altcoins relative to BTC and ETH. source: Federal Reserve Board balance sheet runoff communications 2022–2024; Federal Reserve Board H.4.1 statistical release

According to @rovercrc, next week’s FOMC could feature a rate cut alongside fresh economic projections and the Fed’s dot plot, which would clarify how many policy cuts officials see this year and beyond. Source: @rovercrc on X, Sep 14, 2025. The Federal Reserve releases the Summary of Economic Projections and the dot plot at projection meetings to show participants’ expected paths for the federal funds rate, growth, unemployment, and inflation. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summary of Economic Projections. For trading, focus on the dot plot median for the current and next two years, the longer-run rate, and updates to core PCE inflation projections, as these drive rate-path repricing that can swing BTC and ETH via funding costs and liquidity conditions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Summary of Economic Projections; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Financial Stability Report. Traders commonly gauge rate-cut odds using the CME FedWatch Tool and adjust positioning around the FOMC statement and the Chair’s press conference, with crypto markets reacting to shifts in yields and the US dollar after policy surprises. Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System communications. Event risk typically lifts implied volatility into FOMC weeks across futures and options, warranting careful position sizing and hedging. Source: CME Group derivatives market education.

According to @rovercrc, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has confirmed rate cuts, and the trader projects Bitcoin to $150,000 and Ethereum to $10,000 based on an X post dated Sep 11, 2025. source: @rovercrc on X. The post provides no official Federal Reserve documentation, so treat this as unverified until corroborated by an FOMC statement, Fed press release, or congressional testimony transcript. source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. For trading, monitor CME FedWatch rate-cut probabilities, U.S. 2y and 10y Treasury yields, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and BTC/ETH perpetual funding and open interest to confirm a dovish repricing before taking directional risk. source: CME Group; U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE U.S. Dollar Index; Coinglass.