According to @rovercrc, a Fed rate cut would be a powerful bullish catalyst for Bitcoin. Historically, outcomes have depended on the macro context: after the emergency cuts to 0–0.25% and the restart of asset purchases on March 15, 2020, BTC gained over 100% by August 2020 and more than 400% by year-end 2020, reflecting a liquidity-driven bid for risk assets (source: Federal Reserve FOMC statement 2020-03-15; BTC-USD daily prices from Yahoo Finance). In contrast, during the 2019 mid-cycle cuts on July 31, September 18, and October 30, BTC fell roughly 30% from July 31 to December 31, 2019 before its longer-term uptrend resumed, underscoring that not every cut triggers an immediate rally (sources: Federal Reserve FOMC statements 2019-07-31, 2019-09-18, 2019-10-30; Yahoo Finance BTC-USD historical data). Macro transmission matters for crypto beta: BTC’s rolling correlation has been negative versus the U.S. Dollar Index and positive versus the Nasdaq 100 through much of 2022–2023, implying a weaker USD and easier financial conditions tend to support BTC, while risk-off in equities can weigh on it even during easing cycles (source: Kaiko research, 2023; ICE U.S. Dollar Index overview). For positioning around an eventual cut, traders commonly monitor Fed cut odds via CME FedWatch, the DXY trend, and U.S. real yields as proxied by 10-year TIPS yields to gauge liquidity and risk appetite shifts that spill over to BTC (sources: CME Group FedWatch Tool; ICE U.S. Dollar Index; Federal Reserve Economic Data for Treasury real yields).