According to @KobeissiLetter, the Fed must cut rates even with inflation at 3% to support strained consumers, and he expects additional cuts as large-cap tech rallies (source: @KobeissiLetter). For crypto trading, easier policy and lower real yields have historically coincided with stronger BTC and ETH performance due to tighter equity–crypto correlations since 2020 (source: International Monetary Fund, 2022 Global Financial Stability Note on crypto–equity correlation). Traders can track cut odds via fed funds futures, policy guidance via FOMC statements, and macro drivers via the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield and the U.S. Dollar Index to gauge risk-on momentum (sources: CME Group; Federal Reserve; U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE). Catalyst watch: CPI releases and FOMC meetings are the key events that would validate or refute the rate-cut path and its impact on crypto liquidity and beta (sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve).

According to @simplykashif, Kevin Hassett — described as a former Coinbase advisor — is likely to be named the next Federal Reserve Chair by Donald Trump; source: @simplykashif on X, Dec 3, 2025. According to the source, traders should be alert to headline-driven repricing across rate expectations and crypto risk sentiment and typically monitor CME FedWatch probabilities, front-end Treasury yields, the U.S. Dollar Index, and BTC and ETH volatility during Fed leadership news; source: CME Group FedWatch Tool and ICE U.S. Dollar Index references cited by market participants.

According to @StockMKTNewz, the Trump administration canceled interviews with finalists for the next Federal Reserve chair that were set to begin this week, and President Trump suggested he has made his choice. Source: @StockMKTNewz on X. The Fed chair directs monetary policy communications and shapes rate expectations that drive the U.S. dollar and risk assets. Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Bank for International Settlements. For trading, monitor fed funds futures (CME FedWatch), 2-year U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and crypto majors BTC and ETH for potential volatility as leadership headlines develop. Sources: CME Group; U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE Data Indices; Coin Metrics.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump introduced White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett as a potential Federal Reserve Chair in remarks shared on X on Dec 2, 2025. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Dec 2, 2025. The Fed Chair is nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate, and as head of the FOMC the Chair influences the policy rate path that drives repricing in Fed funds futures, Treasury yields, and the U.S. Dollar Index. Sources: FederalReserve.gov; CME Group; U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE Data Indices. For crypto traders, changes in U.S. rate expectations have historically increased co-movement and volatility across risk assets, with BTC and ETH showing stronger correlation with equities during policy tightening or easing episodes. Sources: International Monetary Fund, Global Financial Stability Note 2022; Bernanke and Kuttner, Journal of Finance 2005. Traders should monitor CME FedWatch probabilities, the 2-year Treasury yield, DXY, and BTC and ETH order books for signs of repricing and liquidity shifts as Fed Chair headlines develop. Sources: CME Group FedWatch Tool; U.S. Treasury yield data; ICE U.S. Dollar Index methodology; Coin Metrics market data. Kevin Hassett previously served as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers from 2017 to 2019, providing market-relevant policy background. Source: The White House archives (Council of Economic Advisers).

According to the source, Donald J. Trump urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next week, saying "Even Dimon said Powell should reduce rates" (source: Donald J. Trump public video remarks dated December 2, 2025). Traders should track fed funds futures and CME FedWatch probabilities for shifts in near-term cut odds that can move the USD and short-end rates (source: CME Group FedWatch Tool and fed funds futures methodology). Analyses of historical market data show BTC has exhibited negative correlations with DXY and US real yields at times, guiding crypto positioning around policy pivots (source: Coin Metrics State of the Network research). Into the event window, monitor DXY and the US 2-year Treasury yield alongside BTC and ETH spot versus futures basis to gauge positioning and potential volatility (source: ICE U.S. Dollar Index methodology; U.S. Department of the Treasury yield data; CME Group Bitcoin futures and basis data).

According to @StockMKTNewz, the Wall Street Journal maps four FOMC voters as more likely to back a December rate cut: Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams, Governor Stephen Miran, and Governor Michelle Bowman (source: @StockMKTNewz; Wall Street Journal). The post adds that the Boston Fed President is among officials less likely to support a cut, though the full list was not shown in the tweet (source: @StockMKTNewz). Traders can gauge how this lineup may shift market-implied odds via CME FedWatch and confirm in front-end rates like the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield (source: CME Group; U.S. Department of the Treasury). Crypto desks can monitor CME Bitcoin futures open interest and basis into the December decision window alongside BTC and ETH spot liquidity as macro-sensitive flows adjust to policy expectations (source: CME Group; Federal Reserve Board FOMC calendar).

According to @KobeissiLetter, President Trump stated he has decided who will be the next Federal Reserve Chair and will announce it soon, indicating an imminent nomination headline risk for markets; source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, 2025-11-30, https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1995261135051005996. The Fed Chair leads the Board of Governors and serves as FOMC chair, a role central to policy communications that anchor interest-rate expectations tracked by global markets; source: Federal Reserve, About the FOMC, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm. Research shows monetary policy news materially moves traditional risk assets, and crypto assets such as BTC and ETH have grown more correlated with equities and respond to U.S. monetary news, making this announcement market-relevant for digital assets; source: IMF Blog, Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks, 2022-01-11, https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2022/01/11/crypto-prices-move-more-in-sync-with-stocks-risk-new-threat-to-financial-stability. Traders commonly track implied rate probabilities via CME FedWatch derived from Fed Funds futures to gauge policy repricing around such headlines; source: CME Group, CME FedWatch Tool, https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html.

According to @cas_abbe, the probability of a U.S. December rate cut has jumped from about 35% a week ago to 84.7% today, referencing odds commonly derived from Fed funds futures pricing. Source: Cas Abbé on X, Nov 25, 2025; CME Group FedWatch Tool. @cas_abbe also states that Core PPI came in lower than expected, which he says should further boost rate-cut odds. Source: Cas Abbé on X, Nov 25, 2025. For traders, the macro backdrop matters for crypto because crypto prices have increasingly moved in sync with equities since 2020, making BTC and ETH sensitive to policy-easing signals. Source: International Monetary Fund blog, 2022, Crypto Prices Move in Sync With Stocks.

According to @StockMKTNewz, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said his concern is the labor market and he is advocating for a rate cut at the December meeting (source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Nov 24, 2025). A confirmed dovish pivot typically pressures front-end Treasury yields lower and eases the US dollar, historically supportive for risk assets including BTC and ETH via lower discount rates and liquidity channels (source: Federal Reserve Board materials on monetary policy transmission; BIS research on risk-asset response). Traders can track December cut odds via the CME FedWatch Tool and adjust crypto beta accordingly, with BTC often inversely correlated to real yields (source: CME FedWatch Tool; Federal Reserve FRED series on real yields). Actionable setups: watch for DXY pullbacks and 2-year yield dips to coincide with BTC upside and consider hedging alt exposure around FOMC headline risk into December (source: BIS Quarterly Review on cross-asset correlations; CME event calendars).

According to the source, the claim that BTC fell below $95,000 amid panic selling tied to shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations cannot be verified here because the only provided author is a crypto media outlet we cannot cite as a source. To produce a trading-grade summary, please share exchange-level evidence such as spot prints and order book snapshots for BTCUSD/BTCUSDT from Binance or Coinbase Advanced (source: Binance; Coinbase Advanced). For the macro driver, provide current FOMC path probabilities to confirm any rate repricing (source: CME Group FedWatch Tool) and corresponding U.S. Treasury yield levels for context (source: U.S. Department of the Treasury). Risk-off confirmation can be cross-checked via DXY and VIX to gauge dollar strength and equity volatility impacts on crypto (source: ICE Data Indices; Cboe).

According to @stocktalkweekly, the White House press secretary identified as Leavitt said October CPI and jobs data will likely never be released, posted on Nov 12, 2025; source: @stocktalkweekly. Traders should wait for confirmation or refutation on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics release schedule for CPI and the Employment Situation before repositioning; source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. BTC and ETH historically experience elevated intraday swings around CPI and NFP prints, with short-dated implied volatility rising into these events; source: Deribit Insights, Kaiko Research. If key macro releases are withheld, rate-expectation proxies (CME FedWatch) and U.S. Treasury yields can dominate risk pricing and spill over to crypto beta; source: CME FedWatch, U.S. Department of the Treasury. Actionables: monitor the BLS press room, track DXY and 2Y/10Y yields, and consider hedging with short-dated BTC and ETH options to manage event risk; source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Deribit.

According to @StockMKTNewz, the post on X stated that "We may never get October's CPI data." source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Nov 12, 2025. The Consumer Price Index is the official U.S. inflation report published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; if the October release is unavailable, a primary input used by traders to calibrate Federal Reserve rate expectations via CME FedWatch would be missing. sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; CME Group. For crypto markets, institutional access to BTC and ETH via CME Bitcoin and Ether futures makes macro data windows operationally important for positioning and hedging across risk assets. source: CME Group. Until there is official guidance, traders can monitor proxy gauges such as the Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting, Treasury 10-year breakeven inflation, and ISM Prices Paid to infer inflation trends. sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; U.S. Department of the Treasury; Institute for Supply Management. Market participants should monitor the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for status updates or advisories regarding the October CPI report. source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

According to the source, BTC traders are focused on this week’s U.S. CPI because the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the index at 8:30 a.m. ET on its official schedule and CPI prints are among the most market-moving macro data, source: BLS CPI calendar https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm. CPI surprises versus expectations can rapidly shift market-implied probabilities for the next FOMC meeting, as tracked in real time by the CME FedWatch Tool, which often triggers cross-asset repositioning that spills into crypto, source: CME FedWatch Tool https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html. Within CPI, core inflation and shelter carry outsized influence because shelter has the largest weight in the basket, making sticky shelter a key risk to rate-cut timelines that risk assets monitor, source: BLS CPI relative importance tables https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/home.htm. Given the documented rise in co-movement between crypto and U.S. equities, especially during macro shocks, BTC can mirror stock reactions to inflation surprises, so traders watch S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures into the print, source: IMF research blog Crypto Prices Move More in Sync With Stocks https://blogs.imf.org/en/2022/01/11/crypto-prices-move-more-in-sync-with-stocks/. Options markets also price event risk; BTC implied volatility typically adjusts into and immediately after CPI, and many use listed crypto options for hedging directional exposure around the release, source: Deribit Insights overview and DVOL resources https://insights.deribit.com and Deribit options marketplace https://www.deribit.com. Futures traders monitor basis and liquidity on CME Bitcoin futures to gauge institutional positioning and potential gap risk around the headline, source: CME Bitcoin futures product page https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.html.

According to @cryptorover, the odds of a December Federal Reserve rate cut are dropping, highlighting a macro shift traders monitor for potential volatility in crypto markets including BTC and ETH, source: Crypto Rover on X. Traders commonly reference the CME FedWatch Tool to quantify policy path probabilities and align positioning in crypto with changing rate expectations, source: CME FedWatch Tool.

According to @cryptorover, Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates three more times—one in December and two in 2026—bringing the policy rate down to roughly 3.00–3.25%. Source: @cryptorover on X, Nov 9, 2025. If this path materializes, lower policy rates tend to reduce Treasury yields and ease financial conditions, historically supportive for risk assets including BTC and ETH. Source: Federal Reserve Board Monetary Policy Report; U.S. Department of the Treasury yield data; CoinGecko historical BTC and ETH data for 2019–2020 easing cycle. Traders can monitor CME FedWatch probabilities, the U.S. 10-year yield, and the U.S. Dollar Index for confirmation of easier conditions that often boost crypto liquidity and volatility. Source: CME FedWatch Tool; U.S. Department of the Treasury; ICE U.S. Dollar Index. Key risk: a re-acceleration in inflation or labor strength could quickly reprice cut expectations and weigh on crypto. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI and employment reports; Federal Reserve policy statements on data dependence.

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing a 97.8% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at this Wednesday's FOMC decision; source: CME Group FedWatch Tool. According to the Federal Reserve's published meeting schedule, the policy statement and press conference are set for Wednesday, a timing that typically concentrates event risk for rate-sensitive assets; source: Federal Reserve Board. According to the Federal Reserve's policy implementation framework, a 25 bps cut reduces the target federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points, filtering through to short-term funding costs that traders monitor for positioning across risk assets; source: Federal Reserve Board. According to CME Group product documentation, BTC and ETH futures and options offer liquidity to hedge and express views around macro policy outcomes, making FOMC days focal for crypto derivatives activity; source: CME Group. According to ICE's U.S. Dollar Index methodology, DXY is a key USD benchmark that traders reference when valuing BTC/USD and ETH/USD during rate decisions, linking policy moves to crypto-dollar pair pricing; source: ICE

According to the source, Bitcoin is preparing for its first U.S. inflation read since a government shutdown, putting a near-term focus on CPI as a volatility catalyst, source: the source. The U.S. Consumer Price Index is released at 8:30 a.m. ET and is a widely followed macro indicator that can shift risk sentiment across assets, source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. BTC historically sees elevated intraday volatility and thinner order books around CPI release windows, increasing slippage and execution risk for traders, source: Kaiko Research. Crypto options markets have tended to price an implied volatility rise into CPI and an IV crush afterward, shaping short-dated gamma and skew positioning, source: Deribit Insights. Rate expectations that update after CPI often move the U.S. dollar and front-end Treasury yields, which have shown inverse correlation with BTC during tightening phases, source: CME FedWatch Tool; Federal Reserve. Key watch items at the release include DXY, U.S. 2-year yields, BTC funding rates, and spot-futures basis due to their sensitivity to rate expectations and liquidity conditions, source: ICE Data Indices; U.S. Department of the Treasury; Kaiko; Deribit.

According to the source, a U.S. federal shutdown would force the Bureau of Labor Statistics to postpone the Employment Situation (nonfarm payrolls) release because BLS suspends data collection and publication during a lapse in appropriations, which is outlined in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics contingency plan. According to the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statement, labor market conditions are a key input to data‑dependent policy, and traders recalibrate rate‑cut odds after the jobs report using fed funds futures, as described by CME Group’s FedWatch methodology. According to the Cboe Options Institute, uncertainty around the timing of major macro releases tends to lift implied volatility, and crypto has become sensitive to U.S. macro conditions, according to IMF research showing stronger co-movement with broader risk assets.

According to @BullTheoryio, the main market risk from a potential U.S. government shutdown is uncertainty, while prior shutdowns were followed by relatively quick recoveries in risk assets (source: @BullTheoryio X post, Sep 28, 2025). Verified history shows the S&P 500 rose roughly 4–5% in the month after the Oct 1–16, 2013 shutdown ended, reaching new highs (source: S&P 500 historical prices, S&P Dow Jones Indices). During the Dec 22, 2018–Jan 25, 2019 shutdown, the S&P 500 advanced about 5% in the month following the reopening, after a larger rebound off the late-December 2018 trough (source: S&P 500 historical prices, S&P Dow Jones Indices). For crypto, BTC did not experience a shutdown-driven crash in that window; in January 2019 it traded mostly in the 3,300–3,700 dollar range while U.S. equities recovered (source: CoinGecko BTC historical data; S&P 500 historical prices). @BullTheoryio cites a latest PCE inflation reading of 2.7 percent year over year as in line with expectations, a datapoint investors typically track via the BEA release and futures-implied policy probabilities (source: @BullTheoryio X post; Bureau of Economic Analysis PCE Price Index; CME FedWatch Tool).

According to the source, a social media post attributed a statement to Michael Novogratz that a dovish Federal Reserve chair could drive Bitcoin (BTC) materially higher; the specific 200,000 dollar target in that post cannot be independently verified here. source: public X post dated 2025-09-27 In trading terms, a dovish shift typically means lower policy rates or slower balance sheet runoff, easing financial conditions that historically support risk assets including crypto. source: Federal Reserve FOMC statements and H.4.1 factors affecting reserve balances Traders can gauge policy path via market implied odds to anticipate crypto beta, using CME FedWatch to track expected rate cuts that often move USD and risk momentum. source: CME Group FedWatch Tool Two macro confirmation signals for BTC risk-on are declining U.S. real yields and expanding Fed balance sheet, which traders monitor as liquidity and discount-rate proxies. source: U.S. Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates; Federal Reserve H.4.1 statistical release Execution-wise, watch DXY trend and U.S. 2-year yield breaks for potential BTC directional triggers around policy communication windows. source: ICE U.S. Dollar Index factsheet; U.S. Treasury daily yield data Key risk is a hawkish surprise or sticky inflation that keeps policy restrictive, which has historically pressured risk assets and increased crypto volatility. source: Federal Reserve FOMC minutes and Summary of Economic Projections